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Moving out of the Deadlock

Nabil Hanna | 7 June 2012

Egyptians of all currents anticipated the judgment on Mubarak, his sons, the former interior minister Habib al-Adly, as well as his  assistants. Some people expected the judgment to be “not guilty” while others expected him to be sentenced  to death. However, we all agreed that June 2nd 2012 will not pass unnoticed. I as well as many have expected the judgment to be postponed until after the presidential elections. 

Such ruling at this very time is surely meant to incite the people. There were many fires, gas crises and accidents. There were also provoking judgments, like expelling Hazem Salah Abu Ismail from the presidential elections. All of this couldn't provoke another revolution.
The results of the first round of the presidential elections were very disappointing to everyone and especially the revolutionists who didn't expect Shafik to reach the runoff. Even such result couldn't provoke them to go to Tahrir square and revolt.
Who wants to establish another revolution? I think it should be the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, and I have my reasons...
After the SCAF has came to power, it was too similar to Mubarak. However it's members have announced many times that they want to hand over power as soon as possible, they proved they are surely not. 
 When the presidential elections became at hand, they had to do something. They condoned  electoral bribes, propaganda in front of the committees and allowed the dead to vote as well as police officers and soldiers! Finally, their favored candidate has reached the runoff as they wanted.
If Shafik becomes president, revolution will restart in a more violent way than January 25, and it won't be peaceful at all. In this situation, SCAF will lose its legitimacy and will have two options: either to use its force or to hand over power to a revolutionary leadership that will take revenge of it.
If Morsy becomes president, SCAF will lose its power and political forces will gradually be controlled and compelled by Muslim Brotherhood in the name of Islam.
Why Shafik? because there is nobody else can do the job. Abul Fotouh and Sabahi will mostly attack the SCAF like Morsy, and Moussa has become so weak that his supporters have abandoned him.
When Shafik has reached the runoff there was a massive wave of protests, SCAF has made sure he has two bad options and SCAF had to do something without being convicted. So, it arranged this judgment on Mubarak and now we have three possibilities: First, postponement of the elections; second, Shafik wins in the runoff and control the revolutionists; third, insecurity which will impose martial law and extend the presence of SCAF in power for a very long time!
 
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